Comments on: The Simple Dollar Weekly Roundup: Bracketology Edition

By: chris

chris — Fri, 21 Mar 2008 21:23:54 +0000

Too bad I wa sout of town and didn’t get to post this earlier, but always, always pick one 12 over a 5. Generally go for a 12 who is a team you’ve heard of, or against a 5 you’ve never heard of.

this year it was drake as a 5 seed and #12 western kentucky beat them.

Also any double digit seed with a nba lottery pick (which unfortunately was kansas st vs my USC this year :()

By: Larry

Larry — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 05:20:03 +0000

The Year of The Tiger!

Go Memphis!!!!

By: fivecentnickel.com

fivecentnickel.com — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 03:52:18 +0000

Historically, in 10 vs. 7 matchups, the 10th seed has a slightly better than 50% chance of winning (or at least this was the case a few years back — I haven’t seen more recent data). That’s the only matchup where the underdog actually does better. So statistically, it would be better to choose high seeds in every game except the 10 vs. 7 matchup in the early rounds. Of course, these things vary wildly from year-to-year, past performance is not a predict of future results, and all that jazz.

By: Jim

Jim — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 02:53:46 +0000

Go Memphis!

By: jj

jj — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 21:31:22 +0000

stupid advice to pick all the top seeds in the first two rounds. thts the chick method of choosing brackets. do some research and pick your teams. why bother even doing brackets if youre just gonna go by the selection committees opinions. dumb advice.

By: Bonnie

Bonnie — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 19:27:44 +0000

I love the idea of Memphis “taking it all”. The U of M is my alma mater! Go Tigers!

By: No Debt Plan

No Debt Plan — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 19:27:23 +0000

Gotta love bracket time. Go Vols!

You’ve got to pick an upset somewhere, the only problem is figuring out where.

By: Bill

Bill — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 19:02:05 +0000

Two words: Jeff Sagarin. Look it up. He provides to USA Today ratings based on strength of schedule, record, and other statistics that generally represent a very good ranking of the teams, even those that haven’t played one another.

I used his data in Vegas a few years ago, where I picked (i.e., WON) 9 out of 10 bets during the first two rounds. Admittedly, I was able to ‘arbitrage’ a bit, in that I didn’t have to pick every game, but only those where the ‘line’ was very disparate from the difference in ratings between the two matched up opponents.

This is my first try at using his system on the entire bracket. I’ve made my picks and you can check them out if you want. Email me and I’ll show you where you can find my bracket.

Bottom line, though: Basketball, like any other sport, is very unpredictable, when taken one game at a time. So, there will be ‘upsets’ made by teams that had no business beating the favored team, if given a series of games. But since it’s ‘one and done’ lots of things can happen.

Odds are, though, the favored teams will win the majority of the games.

By: Jesse

Jesse — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 18:35:13 +0000

One extra addition I would make: similar records, pick the “home” team.

By: Phil A

Phil A — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 18:03:02 +0000

Good sound strategy Trent. I incorporate one similar to it.

By: Tony Katz

Tony Katz — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:33:53 +0000

I’m so glad I don’t work in an office anymore where these knuckleheads are running around filling out brackets. If it isn’t March Madness, it’s the football pool, or the fantasy baseball league, etc.

By: James

James — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 17:22:19 +0000

I used this strategy last year and won two pools. My brother was furious that it worked because never once in NCAA history have all the top seeded teams made it to the second round.

By: Frugal Dad

Frugal Dad — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 15:25:07 +0000

I haven’t kept up with NCAA b-ball much this year, but I like your selection methodology and may borrow it for our office pool. Now if NCAA football would ever go to this method of post-season play I would be dangerous!

By: paidtwice

paidtwice — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 15:03:16 +0000

Thanks for including my snowflaking post in your roundup! :) It was a hard-fought battle in the PF March Madness bracket indeed and I couldn’t have asked for a more worthy opponent. :)

Good luck with your NCAA bracket – I am an emotional chooser and always have my alma mater go farther than my brain knows they should. At least they’ve won a few tournaments so I can tell myself it isn’t the stupidest of picks. :)

By: Michael

Michael — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 14:44:06 +0000

90% off is a good price if its market value is higher after selling expenses, and the buyer wants to spend time to sell it.

By: Ben Dinsmore

Ben Dinsmore — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 14:28:18 +0000

Trent,

COngratulations to you and JD on your first full week as full time writers.

Also, 90% certainly isn’t a deal if you don’t need something. My wife and I have struggled in the past with all of the “great deals” we each would fine when we would use up all of our discretionary income (and then a whole lot more) on junk that did nothing more than just clutter up our lives.

By: The Weakonomist

The Weakonomist — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 14:17:01 +0000

Indiana can’t get past NC. I’m an ACC guy, and hate Carolina and Duke. Be that as it may, Carolina will win it all this year.

I’m almost done with my bracket, I’ve got Carolina, Memphis, and Xavier. I’m still deciding about the Midwest bracket. Portland State?

By: Saving Freak

Saving Freak — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 14:11:12 +0000

I love March Madness. My strategy has always been to look at the strength of the conferences. Pick the teams in the conference that was the most competitive this season. Don’t get too happy with those teams if you have a 9 seed versus a 1 that is not a good time to pick the 9.

By: Kacie

Kacie — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 14:05:03 +0000

Eh, I try to be less scientific about it. Anything can happen in the big dance.

Let’s hope my #8 seed Hoosiers do well (not so likely…but, we’ll see!).

People who pick teams based on their mascot, color, or sound of their name seem to do just as well as the people who have been following college hoops all season.