Comments on: Review: The Drunkard’s Walk

By: Alan

Alan — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 23:38:42 +0000

Best way to prepare for randomness is to build your house on the Rock instead of on shifting sand. :) Afterall wouldn’t YOU want to get to know the person who knows YOUR future? *grin*

By: getagrip

getagrip — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 17:57:50 +0000

Funny how this follows a post about planning for the future.

Based on this review it sounds like the book could be summed up with this old poem:

Expect the best,
plan for the worst,
Life’s a play,
and we’re unrehearsed.

By: Gal @ Equally Happy

Gal @ Equally Happy — Mon, 22 Nov 2010 17:38:35 +0000

I read Taleb’s black swan and his fooled by randomness and was not impressed. He seems to attribute too much to randomness as a way of justifying his own way of life.

Honestly, most randomness is just our inability to discern the patterns and forces in action. In many cases those patterns may in fact be impossible for us to ever predict but in some cases they’re not. Take weather for example, dumb TV weatherman jokes apart, our ability to predict it has gotten much better.

To me, it’s far better to try and figure out which patterns you can predict and which you can’t (and the average accuracy of your predictions) and then act accordingly, rather than simply saying “well, it’s all random so just always play it safe” which is what Nassim seems to be saying with his books.

Gal

Sorry for the off topic response, I suppose I should have written this as a comment on your review of Taleb’s book.

By: Marsha

Marsha — Sun, 21 Nov 2010 20:46:35 +0000

I enjoyed this book also. Of course it fits into my philosophy of standing back from the edge of the cliff so the slightest wind or tremor isn’t fatal (metaphorically or in reality).