The TSD5 Index: How Did My Gut Picks Do In January?

On December 6, I announced the TSD 5 index, a collection of five stocks that I picked mostly based upon my gut feeling about the company. Here’s what was in the index on January 1:
Apple (AAPL, @ 84.84)
Hasbro (HAS, @ 27.25)
Whirlpool (WHR, @ 83.02)
Riverbed Technology (RVBD, @ 30.70)
Lowe’s (LOW, @ 31.15)

So how did these stocks do during January? I took their closing price on February 2 and decided to do some comparisons.

Let’s see how we’re doing.

Apple (AAPL)
January 1: 84.84
February 2: 84.31
Change: -0.62%

Apple took a big jump in the middle of the month with the iPhone, then fell back to where they were at. Basically, no change.

Hasbro (HAS)
January 1: 27.25
February 2: 28.81
Change: +5.72%

People are starting to realize that Hasbro’s numbers are great and they hold a ton of great licenses for 2007.

Whirlpool (WHR)
January 1: 83.02
February 2: 92.37
Change: +11.26%

They tossed off the terrible Hoover brand and are becoming more and more of a value stock, as value buyers are starting to sneak in.

Riverbed Technology (RVBD)
January 1: 30.70
February 2: 33.57
Change: +9.34%

Lots of deals being announced and lots of analyst upgrades have put some people on the Riverbed bandwagon.

Lowe’s (LOW)
January 1: 31.15
February 2: 34.05
Change: +9.31%

Again, a few analyst upgrades and an announcement of expansion into Mexico were good for this home improvement giant.

Wow. My worst stock was Apple, during the month they announced the iPhone. Months like this make me feel like maybe I know what I’m talking about (not really, though). Here’s the score:

Apple (AAPL, @ 84.31, -0.62%)
Hasbro (HAS, @ 28.81, +5.72%)
Whirlpool (WHR, @ 92.37, +11.26%)
Riverbed Technology (RVBD, @ 33.57, +9.34%)
Lowe’s (LOW, @ 34.05, +9.31%)
Overall: 257.45, +6.08%

This was a very nice month, especially considering I was down 4% for December on this portfolio. I’m very happy with this performance and I think that a few of them will continue to climb throughout the year.

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  1. wondering says:

    Did you buy any shares in those stocks last december?

  2. Matt Brubeck says:

    To see whether your picks are good, you should compare them to a benchmark like the S&P 500 index. Even if they’re up, they’re not very good picks if most investments would have done better. (Likewise, even if they’re down, it’s still good if they took less of a hit than the market as a whole.)

    For January, the S&P 500 gained about 1.6%, so you beat the market nicely!

  3. adam says:

    AAPL is now sitting at $135.36! And this is AFTER the big market dip.

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